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Despite military setbacks in Ukraine, a botched mobilisation, and political infighting, Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia remains firm, according to eight well-informed sources, but this could change quickly if total defeat beckons.
The bulk of them claim that the Russian president is currently in one of his most perilous positions in his more than two decades of leadership over Ukraine, where his invading forces have been pushed back in certain places by a Kiev equipped by the West.
However, according to the sources, who include current and former Western diplomats and government officials, there is no immediate threat from his inner circle, military, or intelligence services.
For the time being, Putin is clinging to power, according to Anthony Brenton, a former British ambassador to Russia.
He said he believed Putin hoped to negotiate over Ukraine, most likely with the Americans, and that Moscow’s flagging battlefield fortunes would improve despite a lack of manpower, hardware, and even missiles, as the West claims.
Putin has been in power since 1999, and he has faced numerous domestic crises and wars, as well as large street protests, before effectively outlawing any genuine opposition.
However, the 70-year-“special old’s military operation” in Ukraine since February 24 has created the most tense East-West standoff since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and triggered the harshest Western sanctions against Russia ever.
His army has suffered humiliating retreats as well as massive losses, and hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have fled abroad to avoid combat. Putin has also engaged in nuclear bluster, which some interpret as a sign of desperation.
Some allies, ranging from “Putin’s foot soldier,” as the Kremlin-backed leader of Chechnya is known, to “Putin’s chef,” the head of a once-shadowy mercenary group, have accused military chiefs of mishandling the war.
Brenton, who dealt with Putin during his second term, said there had been no public criticism of him from the political or business elites, nor any indication of a move against him, but that may not be the case in the future.
‘ADVANCED ARGUMENTS’
Protests by relatives against mobilisation, Ukraine’s vow not to deal with Putin, and an apparently unscripted and quickly retracted statement by US President Joe Biden that Putin must not be allowed to remain in power have all fueled speculation about his future.
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said this month that a Washington Post report that a member of Putin’s inner circle confronted him about the war was “absolutely not true,” but that there was candid policy debate.
According to the Kremlin, Putin has the support of an overwhelming majority of Russians and was re-elected with a landslide in 2018.
Russia’s political system is notoriously opaque, though Washington demonstrated in the run-up to the invasion that it could deduce Moscow’s intentions.
According to a senior Western official who is closely monitoring the situation and declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject, there have been no major defections so far.
According to a US official who did not wish to be identified for the same reason, Washington and its allies assumed Putin’s position was secure. “However, many of his recent actions, including mobilisation, clearly demonstrate Putin is on the defensive.”
Show me who is going to speak in Putin’s office and then tell me you’re done. Who would have the audacity to do something like that?” Weiss, who served in various policy roles on the US National Security Council and wrote a book about Putin, agreed.
‘FEAR REMAINS’
Putin would be in trouble, according to Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analysis firm, if he ran out of options for escalating the conflict.
In that case, the elite would try to persuade Putin to step down, she predicted, adding that no coups like the ones that deposed Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 or targeted Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991 had taken place.
However, if the Russian army is pushed back to Russia’s pre-annexation borders, if the Ukrainian army goes on the offensive further…and if the budget is unable to cope and pensions are delayed…the elite will gradually mobilise.”
Despite rising public anxiety in Russia, one French diplomatic source believes Putin, who controls influential state media, can maintain his grip.
According to a senior European official, Putin would need to lose the war demonstrably in order to be deposed.
Former British ambassador Brenton predicted that if and when that time came, his successor would be unlikely to be a friend of the West.
“The decision-makers are tough securocrats. We’re not going to get a likeable liberal.”
