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Following the recent news of the Russian shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, which is Europe’s largest, there is widespread concern about the possibility of a Chernobyl-style release of radioactive material. The attack injured several security personnel at the plant.
There is a significant amount of nuclear material at the site due to the presence of six large nuclear power reactors. While these are not the same type of reactor as those at the Chernobyl plant and are of a much safer design, they are still vulnerable to weapons of mass destruction.
The building that was attacked and set on fire was about 500 meters away from the block of six reactors. It contained no nuclear material because it was only used for training and administration. There has been no increase in radiation levels.
While Ukrainian personnel continues to operate the reactors, Russian forces have effectively taken control of the entire power plant. According to the CCTV footage, this was not an unintentional strike, but rather a planned attack. The Russian forces are sending a message: they have the ability to attack the plant at any time but have chosen not to do so for the time being. Although the fire was quickly extinguished, the threat of what could happen next looms larger than ever.
This is a nearly unprecedented situation. Nuclear materials have previously been targeted during times of armed conflicts, such as when Israel bombed a secret Syrian reactor. However, because the Syrian reactor was still under construction at the time and no nuclear fuel had been loaded, we were effectively in uncharted territory.
This is a threat that I would have dismissed just a few days ago. Attacking a nuclear power plant, especially one so close to home, is a high-risk strategy. The negative consequences will almost certainly outweigh any potential benefits. Experts like myself, on the other hand, have consistently been proven wrong when predicting what Vladimir Putin will and will not do.
Only one of the six reactors was operational at the time of the attack: Unit 4 at 60% power. All of the other units were either shut down for maintenance or in a low-power standby mode. To some extent, the plant is thus continuing to operate normally, albeit in the most unusual of circumstances.
