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The virus that causes Covid-19 has proven to be exceedingly unpredictable, causing vaccine producers to re-test doses due to new strains.
However, the latest variety to spread around the world has some researchers believing that long-awaited collective immunity is on the horizon, and that the virus is developing into a rather benign seasonal sickness.
Omicron has proven to be especially contagious, infecting those who were considered to be immune due to immunizations or a previous infection.
Despite the fact that Omicron is causing a record number of infections in countries all over the world, the illness is often milder than prior strains.
Some specialists believe that increasing the number of people who get Omicron and recover, as well as increasing immunizations, could help build collective defences against nearly any kind of Covid.
Because Omicron causes fewer hospitalizations, Covid-19 may evolve into a lesser form, comparable to coronaviruses that have been circulating in the general population for a long time.
“Perhaps we’re seeing the start of an evolution towards a more common virus,” said Alain Fischer, who oversees France’s pandemic vaccination response.
In response to a UK study on Omicron’s decreased severity, clinical virologist Julian Tang predicted that in the future, only the most vulnerable would require repeat vaccination and other treatments.
“In the next one to two years, I’m still optimistic that the virus will evolve into something more like the other common cold coronaviruses,” he said.
Officials in charge of public health have endorsed these hypotheses.
“Perhaps this will be the wave that allows us to gain a kind of immunity,” French health minister Olivier Veran told the assembly last week.
Herd immunity was previously described as “probable” by his Israeli counterpart, Nachman Ash, on an Israeli radio station.
“However, we don’t want to get there by infection,” he stated. “We want that to happen because more people are getting vaccinated.”
‘A more common virus’
Even if Omicron causes fewer severe cases per million people, the fact that a bigger proportion of the population is infected means that hospitalizations will rise overall.
Prior to the holidays, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that many people could become infected with Omicron while the more severe Delta form is still circulating.
Experts caution that in the absence of global herd immunity, Omicron is unlikely to be the last Covid variation.
“We’re not there yet,” Fontanet added.
“We should expect new variations to arise, but their ability to cause significant repercussions will reduce as our immunity strengthens over time — whether through natural infection or booster vaccination doses.”
All eventualities are on the table for epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, who leads the Institute of Global Health in Geneva.
“Let us remember that this epidemic is mostly unpredictable,” he told AFP, “if we want to start learning lessons from the recent past of this pandemic.”
