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President Vladimir Putin is betting that his troops can deliver a victory in Ukraine’s east to save Russia’s flagging invasion after failing to seize Kyiv with a lightning strike. He still has a difficult task ahead of him. Six weeks of war have revealed serious flaws in Russia’s ability to sustain military operations, forcing the Kremlin to reduce its war objectives. The focus is now on capturing Ukraine’s Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as potentially as much of its southern coast as possible, allowing Putin to establish a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula, which he annexed in 2014.
“It’s more realistic than the big goals they had initially,” said Samuel Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “The Russian troops are tired; the challenge for them will be to maintain momentum and pressure — a lot will depend on the state of the Ukrainian forces.”
Ukraine is bracing for a “heavy fight over Donbas,” according to Ihor Zhovkva, Ukraine’s deputy presidential chief of staff. Civilians have been advised to flee the area as soon as possible.
According to Rochan Consulting, a defence research group based in Gdansk, with up to a third of Russia’s battle-ready units deployed in Ukraine out of action, encircling Ukrainian forces there will necessitate significant reinforcements.
“The best troops have already been used, and we cannot be certain of the quality of Russia’s reserves,” said Pavel Luzin, an independent military analyst based in Russia. “How much of this workforce is combat ready, and how motivated is it to go on such an offensive?”
According to Western officials, Russia is redeploying forces from Georgia’s breakaway regions to reaffirm its invasion of Ukraine, a sign of troop shortages. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops who retreated from Kyiv to Russia will be ineffective for some time.
Russian troops have already made modest advances east of Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv in an attempt to cut off the Ukrainian forces defending Donbas, which are among the best and most battle-hardened in the country. Ukraine’s control of the strategic towns of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk stands in Russia’s way, though it may try to avoid them.
Ukraine is reinforcing its troops, emboldened by its successful defence of Kyiv and backed by weaponry supplied by the US and European allies.
Negotiations between the two sides to end the fighting have stalled and may not resume until the outcome of this new phase of the war is known.
