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As the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, analysts say China is closely monitoring the conflict for the past four months in order to draw lessons for a possible invasion of Taiwan. The latest phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 15 illustrates the two countries’ growing ties in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict.
On his 69th birthday, Xi called Russian President Vladimir Putin to assure him that “bilateral relations have retained a proper development momentum in the face of global volatility and transformations.”
The Chinese President’s pledge to Moscow for more “sovereignty and security” support amounts to the Chinese leader dismissing all previous Western warnings that China risked major reputational risk by not condemning the Kremlin.
What worries Western leaders the most is that Xi went even further, promising to deepen systematic and organized way between the two countries.
Jianli Yang and Yan Yu argued in Providence magazine that Xi must accelerate the internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB) and build an international commercial network on it that is not tied to the dollar (USD).
They believe Xi should also put pressure on and assist CCP political families and oligarchs who are hesitant to transfer or shield overseas assets. “The longer they wait, the more probably they are to turn against Xi due to the losses they would endure if Western countries imposed significant sanctions.”
Yang and Yu tried to point out that one of the main reasons why the US and NATO have so far avoided intervening in Ukraine is Putin’s nuclear threats. “Other nations have undoubtedly learned that nuclear threats work.”
“Should an attempted Chinese conquest of Taiwan also enter a period of stalemate,” they added, “preventing Chinese domestic anti-war activists from using worldwide public opinion to strengthen their position and promote political change may be Xi’s first priority.”
Regardless of which side wins the Russia-Ukraine war, Yang and Yu argue that as long as Putin survives, it is in the best interests of the Xi regime, because Moscow will keep consuming the attention of the democratic world against long-term dangers to it.
“To mitigate the beneficial affect of Xi’s influence, Western powers such as the United States and the EU should efficaciously resist the brutal expansionism of autocracy countries by providing sufficient support to Ukraine to help Ukraine quickly win the war,” they added.
