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In 2022, Kim Jong Un lowered the bar for utilising nuclear weapons, launched record numbers of missiles, and disregarded international sanctions. In the upcoming year, he’s probably going to ratchet up the heat even more.
This week, as his governing Workers’ Party completes a significant year-end policy-setting conference, Kim is anticipated to present his plans for 2023. The North Korean leader promised to bolster the military at the meeting, but specifics won’t be made public until state media reports on the meeting around New Year’s Day. The message from last year was close to 8,000 words long.
Kim will likely continue working on his ability to conduct a credible nuclear strike against the US and its allies given the lack of danger of additional sanctions and ongoing efforts to further develop weapons like drones, submarines, and missiles.
According to North Korea’s official statements, media hyperbole, military actions in recent months, and other factors, Lee said it is improbable that the regime will go back to the bargaining table anytime soon.
State media stated on Thursday that Kim expressed his conviction in “the course of the Korean revolution and the faith in its invincibility” during the meeting.
About 70 ballistic missiles have been launched by the Kim dictatorship so far in 2022, which is roughly three times more than any other year since he assumed power a decade ago, in violation of UN resolutions.
This has made it possible to create a contemporary missile arsenal with solid-fuel rockets that are quicker to launch, easier to conceal, and made to avoid US defences in the area. He is hoping it will help prevent a repeat of the 2017 standoff with the US, during which former President Donald Trump threatened “fire and fury” in response to North Korea’s nuclear tests and American officials discussed a “bloody nose” strike on North Korea.
An Atomic Test
In addition, Kim seems prepared to carry out his first nuclear test since 2017 as he works to downsize warheads for tactical weapons he plans to use to attack South Korea and Japan, which are the locations of the majority of US forces in Asia. The potency of a warhead he could attach to an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the American mainland may likewise be strengthened by an atomic explosion.
David Schmerler, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, said that disarmament negotiations “don’t fit into the development trends we are seeing.”
If Kim conducts a nuclear weapon test, the US, South Korea, and Japan have vowed a severe, coordinated response. However, Kim has not changed his behaviour despite years of isolation and sanctions. Russian and Chinese vetoes at the UN Security Council make it practically impossible for them to support fresh sanctions against North Korea as they did in 2017.
Lee Sang-keun, director of strategic research at Seoul’s Institute for National Security Strategy, said Pyongyang was ratcheting up tensions to create a pretext for carrying out its seventh nuclear test. “Pyongyang doesn’t see any chance or need of improvement in relations with the US or South Korea at this point,” he added.
Restoring Rail Trade Between Russia and North Korea Since Early 2020
According to the US, Russia may even be financially supporting North Korea by acquiring weapons that North Korea could deploy in Vladimir Putin’s fight against Ukraine. In addition to reopening its lone train connection with Russia that had been cut off owing to Covid-19 over three years ago, Pyongyang has denied the accusation as an unfounded rumour.
Kim has rejected US efforts to restart nuclear disarmament negotiations and invited his daughter to the launch of an ICBM in November, signalling that there is another generation ready to take over the Cold War’s last continuously ruling family dynasty and that it will depend on nuclear weapons for its survival.
Slap on the Wrist
In the meantime, Kim’s propaganda machine has ramped up to portray the North Korean leader as being concerned for his people, publishing about two dozen reports on its official Korean Central News Agency this year about the advancements made in housing construction, which it claimed was an expression of the “loving care” of Kim’s ruling party.
Soo Kim, a policy analyst with the Rand Corp. who formerly worked at the Central Intelligence Agency, said that even while Kim may not have seen a US president this year, “he was still able to get away with a record number of weapons tests without more than a slap on the wrist.”
Kim will want to maintain this momentum into 2023 to advance his nation’s weapons development, she predicted, as he’s had a fairly busy year. It’s to his advantage that the conflict in Russia and Ukraine and the escalating hostilities with China have, in some ways, drawn our attention away from the North Korean nuclear threat.
