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Following a visit to the self-ruled island by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China is set to launch its largest-ever military exercises encircling Taiwan on Thursday.
Pelosi left Taiwan on Wednesday following a brief visit that defied Beijing’s increasingly stern threats.
The House Speaker, who is second in line to the presidency, was the highest-profile elected US politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years.
She stated that her participation made it “unequivocally clear” that the US will “not leave” a democratic ally like Taiwan.
Beijing reacted angrily, vowing “retribution” for those who had offended it and announcing military drills in the seas surrounding Taiwan, which are some of the world’s busiest waterways.
According to state media, the exercises will begin at 12:00 p.m. (0400 GMT) and would include “training activities including live-fire drills.”
They will take place in several zones encircling Taiwan, with some spots as close as 20 kilometres (12 miles) to the island’s shore, and will end at midday on Sunday.
The exercises were “unprecedented,” according to military analysts, and missiles would fly over Taiwan for the first time.
The People’s Liberation Army, China’s military, will launch live long-range artillery across the Taiwan Straits for the first time, according to the publication.
Drills have been taking place since last Tuesday, with Beijing’s Xinhua news agency stating that they have mimicked a “joint blockade” of Taiwan.
Taipei has opposed the measures, warning that they endanger East Asia’s security.
“Some of the locations of China’s drills break into… (Taiwan’s) territorial seas,” said Sun Li-fang, a spokeswoman for the defence ministry, at a press conference on Wednesday. “This is an insane attempt to undermine the international order.”
The scheduled drills were also denounced by the Group of Seven industrialised nations, who stated that “there is no justification to use a visit as a pretext for hostile military activities in the Taiwan Strait.”
‘Practice for actual conflict’
Taiwan’s Maritime and Port Bureau issued warnings to ships in the northern, eastern, and southern zones on Wednesday ahead of the drills.
“Ships are advised to avoid regions of military training and use alternate routes,” the bureau warned.
Beijing has defended the scheduled exercises, as well as the drills that have been taking place surrounding Taiwan since late Tuesday, as “necessary and just,” and blamed the escalation on on the US and its allies.
“The United States are the provocateurs in the present conflict surrounding Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, and China is the sufferer,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular briefing on Wednesday.
“The coordinated provocation by the US and Taiwan came first, and China’s just defence came second,” she continued.
A Chinese military source also told AFP that the exercises would be held “in preparation for actual conflict.”
“If Taiwanese soldiers come into touch with the PLA on purpose and mistakenly fire a gun, the PLA will take strong countermeasures, and the Taiwanese side will bear all the repercussions,” the source said.
Some boundaries’
Taiwan’s 23 million people have long faced the fear of invasion, but under President Xi Jinping, China’s most forceful ruler in a generation, that threat has grown.
The Taiwan Strait, which is only 130 kilometres (81 miles) wide at its narrowest point, is a significant international shipping passage and the only thing that separates now-democratic Taiwan from its massive authoritarian neighbour.
However, it has now become a flashpoint between the US, Taiwan, and a Chinese government eager to project strength ahead of a major governing party gathering this autumn, when Xi is anticipated to be handed a historic third term in office.
“China’s announced military drills indicate a significant escalation from the existing baseline of Chinese military actions surrounding Taiwan and from the last Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst for China at the International Crisis Group.
“Beijing is signalling that it opposes Taiwan’s sovereignty.”
Nonetheless, analysts have told AFP that China does not intend to escalate the situation beyond its control, at least for the time being.
“I think they are quite careful not to escalate beyond control,” Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor with a specialty on security issues at the National University of Singapore, told AFP.
“Clearly, they recognise that there are some boundaries to what they are willing to do.”
“The last thing Xi wants is an unintentional war,” said Titus Chen, an associate professor of political science at Taiwan’s National Sun Yat-Sen University.
