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The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin has done more to unite Western Europe than almost any other event since World War II.
Nations that were previously neutral have provided arms to Ukrainians; governments that had previously failed to meet their NATO defense spending obligations have made spectacular U-turns, and countries with deep economic ties to Russia have gone further in breaking the link than anyone could have imagined a month ago.
Despite the horrors of Putin’s war, many in Europe are optimistic that the continent will emerge better equipped to deal with security threats as a result of the West’s almost unprecedented unity on sanctions, political and military action.
This is especially true in the three Nordic countries that make up the Scandinavian Peninsula: Norway, Sweden, and Finland.
Because of their unique relationship with each other, the rest of Europe, and Russia, the fate of these three countries has been brought into sharp focus by the Ukraine crisis.
Both Norway and Finland have land borders with Russia, though Norway’s is much shorter at less than 124 miles compared to Finland’s 800-mile border. Norway, the westernmost of the three, is a NATO member but not a member of the European Union, whereas Finland and Sweden are both EU members but not NATO members.
Because of their proximity, all three have historically supported a non-confrontational approach to Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Furthermore, all three are members of the EU’s Schengen zone, which allows for borderless travel between the three countries.
These last two facts have played a significant role in the major rethinking of European security that has occurred in the last three weeks: How can you have a non-confrontational policy when you share an open landmass with Russia?
According to one senior European defense official, “if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, we are already asking who is next.” They went on to say that because the three countries have open borders, any compromise of the Finnish border would be “traumatic” for the peninsula.
Active discussions about joining NATO, which was once viewed as a risky act of provocation by Sweden and Finland, are now taking place in both countries. And, like their neighbor Norway, they are abandoning non-confrontational diplomacy.
“The biggest shock for Europeans in terms of the Nordic response – and I suspect for Putin – has been Finland and Sweden suddenly breaking long-held position(s) not to export arms to war zones and sending supplies to Ukraine,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading scientist in global security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
