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The world was shocked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, but President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of backing down.
According to Western government sources and think-tank experts, the following are possible scenarios for the coming weeks and months.
1) Ideological quagmire
So far, Ukrainian forces have resisted Russia’s invasion, defeating a paratrooper attempt to seize the capital in the early days and maintaining control over major cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol.
Although Russia claims complete air superiority, Western officials say Ukraine’s air defenses around the capital Kyiv and elsewhere appear to be degraded but still operational.
“That’s caused them so many problems,” a European source said on condition of anonymity to reporters on Friday.
A large number of Ukrainians have also joined territorial defense units, and there are still concerns about the Russian army’s morale and logistical support.
Ukraine’s troops, aided by Western intelligence and an influx of anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles, may be able to hold out in the capital and force a military stalemate.
2) Changes in Russian society
Russian President Vladimir Putin is closely monitoring domestic dissent.
A crackdown on independent media and foreign news providers has eliminated alternative sources of information about the war, cementing the grip of Russia’s ultra-loyal state media.
Despite this, small anti-war protests have taken place in cities ranging from Saint Petersburg to Moscow, with at least 6,000 people arrested, according to local rights organizations.
3) Russian military triumph
Given Russian troops’ superior weapons, airpower, and devastating artillery use, Western defense analysts expect them to press on.
A massive convoy of vehicles has gathered outside of Kyiv in preparation for an assault on the capital.
Following a phone call with Putin on Thursday morning, French President Emmanuel Macron concluded that “the worst is yet to come.”
An aide later told reporters that Putin wants to “take control of entire Ukraine.”
4) The spread of conflict
Ukraine shares a border with four former Soviet republics that are now members of the NATO military alliance led by the United States, which considers an attack on one member to be an attack on all.
Putin’s nostalgia for the Soviet Union, as well as his pledge to protect Russian minorities in the Baltic states, have raised concerns about his territorial ambitions.
5) The NATO conflict
This was always thought to be impossible due to the mutually assured destruction of nuclear weapons.
The United States and Russia have established a “deconfliction line” through which they can quickly exchange military information in order to reduce the possibility of a misunderstanding.
