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According to US specialists, Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine was a strategic and tactical disaster defined by food and fuel shortages, abandoned armoured vehicles, plane losses, and troop deaths.
However, they warned that Moscow’s failings in the early days, such as drastically underestimating the Ukrainians’ determination to fight back, may lead to a frustrated Moscow deciding to unleash all of its force and indiscriminately destroy significant swaths of Ukraine.
The mismanagement of the campaign, which has seen invading columns stop, hundreds of Russian armoured vehicles reportedly lost, and the Ukrainians blocking the Kremlin’s air force from dominating the sky, has astounded US military experts who studied the Russian military.
“I could see that if you screwed it up two or three weeks in,” Scott Boston, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation think tank, said.
According to the Pentagon and private sector specialists, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army would quickly undermine Ukraine’s ability to fight back, undermining Ukraine’s command and control of the 200,000-strong military, dismantling missile defences, and destroying Kyiv’s air force.
In the first six days, none of this has happened. And, while there are no credible estimates of the number of Russian troops killed, injured, or taken, the figures appear to be significantly greater than what would be expected in a well-managed invasion.
“His main assault is underpowered. It has been done in bits and pieces. His reconnaissance units have been taken prisoner, and his columns have been annihilated “He expressed himself.
“Through and through, it’s a disaster.”
The loss of aircraft
The failure of the Russians to immediately seize and retain an airport just outside Kyiv, according to military experts at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, was a critical setback.
According to them, the airport was likely too badly damaged during the battle for the airport to be used in the invasion of Kyiv as planned.
“Russian aircraft and helicopter losses have been surprisingly significant and unsustainable,” they added, because the Ukrainian air defences were not destroyed.
Electronic warfare weapons, which most experts expected to play a large role in assaulting the Ukrainians’ capacity to communicate, were also deployed in a limited or ineffectual manner, which surprised most analysts.
The Ukrainians have continued to damage Russian armour with their Bayraktar drones, which were built in Turkey, according to Boston.
“Something is amiss on the Russian side if they got hit more than once or twice.”
Scarce food
According to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, the Russians did not appear to coordinate their large and diversified capabilities properly, nor did they manage the invasion logistics adequately.
“We’re getting early indicators that, despite their sophisticated combined weaponry capabilities, they’re not fully integrated,” he said.
Their logistical problems were also unexpected.
“Vehicles are being left parked. Not just in gasoline, but also in food, we’re experiencing sustainability issues “On Wednesday, he stated.
Boston, who has participated in high-level war games focusing on the Russian military, believes there are evidence that much of the force is young, undertrained for this type of fight, and likely uninformed they are heading to war.
He also claimed that the ground forces looked to have no idea what they were trying to accomplish by invading Ukraine, which has traditionally had relations to Russia.
He stated, “You can’t adjust if you don’t know what’s going on.”
The Russians aren’t written off by any of the specialists. The Russian force’s progress has slowed, but Kirby believes this will give them time to work out their logistical issues.
On the contrary, they believe that Putin’s irritation in the early days of the conflict would lead to his unleashing the full might of his artillery, missiles, and air power on the Ukrainian people, which will be disastrous.
According to the Scowcroft Center’s study, “Russia still has huge combat power advantages that will wear down Ukrainian forces as the war continues.”
